Abstract:
The survival of virtually every organism is heavily dependent on water, one source of which is rainfall. Due to
the agriculture base of the Ghanaian economy, rainfall forecast has become paramount in the wake of changing
climatic conditions due to human activities. This paper therefore seeks to develop a time series model for rainfall
pattern and its prediction for the New Juaben Municipality of the Eastern region of Ghana. Rainfall monthly data
on New Juaben Municipality was used by applying the Box-Jenkins approach to develop the SARIMA (0, 0, 1) (1,
1, 1)12 model, to forecast the rainfall statistics of the New Juaben Municipality for a year. From the results of the
study, it was revealed that rainfall pattern for the next year will not be substantially different from the previous
years despite some human and industrial activities that were believed to be affecting the pattern. It was therefore
recommended that measures put in place to curb activities that seem to be detrimental to climate be continued.
